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Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Sudut Politik


Raja Petra Kamarudin
In the March 2008 general election, Pakatan Rakyat won 80 Parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia and only two in East Malaysia -- one each in Sabah and Sarawak. Barisan Nasional won 140 Parliament seats in total.
Let’s say this time around Pakatan Rakyat manages to retain its 80 Parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia. It does not lose any of its seats and neither does it increase its seats in Peninsular Malaysia. That would mean Pakatan Rakyat would need to win at least 32 seats from East Malaysia (or an increase of 30 seats from the current two) to form the new federal government.
The first question would be: would an increase from two to 32 be a realistic aim? Is that not too large a jump to expect?
Nevertheless, 32 seats from East Malaysia would give Pakatan Rakyat a mere two-seat majority -- 112 Parliament seats for Pakatan Rakyat versus 110 for Barisan Nasional. That is too risky, as Barisan Nasional needs to buy over only one Pakatan Rakyat Member of Parliament to trigger a hung Parliament -- or two Pakatan Rakyat MPs to take over the government.
Hence Pakatan Rakyat needs more than just an additional 32 seats. Preferably it should be at least 42 seats to make it safe for Pakatan Rakyat so that Pakatan Rakyat wins 122 Parliament seats versus 100 for Barisan Nasional.
However, East Malaysia has only 56 Parliament seats -- 25 in Sabah and 31 in Sarawak. So 42 seats would not be a realistic target. At best Pakatan Rakyat may be able to win between 3-8 Parliament seats in Sabah and 7-11 in Sarawak.
That would give Pakatan Rakyat only 10 to 19 Parliament seats in total -- far short of the 32-42 that Pakatan Rakyat needs to form the new federal government (or form the new federal government with a safe majority of 22 seats).
Let’s average those worst (11) and best (19) scenarios for East Malaysia and put it as 15 seats in total. Added to the 80 seats from Peninsular Malaysia, that would give Pakatan Rakyat only 95 seats. And that would mean Barisan Nasional would still form the federal government with 127 Parliament seats.
Hence 11-19 seats from East Malaysia are not enough. From the total of 56 seats for East Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat must win at least 25. And this would mean Pakatan Rakyat must cooperate with other East Malaysian parties because on its own Pakatan Rakyat can never win 25 of the 56 seats from East Malaysia.
On top of that, Pakatan Rakyat would need to win an additional 15 seats from Peninsular Malaysia from its current 80. I am assuming, of course, that Pakatan Rakyat can retain every single one of its 80 seats from Peninsular Malaysia. This would then give Pakatan Rakyat a total of 120 Parliament seats versus only 102 for Barisan Nasional.
We are, of course, working on the assumption that Pakatan Rakyat can retain all its 80 Parliament seats from Peninsular Malaysia and then it wins an additional (new) 15 seats from Peninsular Malaysia plus 25 seats from East Malaysia (which would include some ‘joint venture’ arrangements with other non-Pakatan Rakyat parties). If not then it will not work.
But where are these seats going to come from?
Well, in the 2008 general election, Pakatan Rakyat won only 1 seat in Johor from the 26 seats in total. Hence Pakatan Rakyat would have to increase its seats in Johor to at least 10.
In Pahang, Pakatan Rakyat won only 2 of the 14 seats. It would need to win at least 5 seats this time around.
In the Federal Territory, Kedah, Penang and Selangor, Pakatan Rakyat may have already peaked. Hence it needs to look at Perak where it won only 13 of the 24 seats and try to increase this to 18 -- or an additional 5 seats.
Hence with 10 seats in the FT, 10 in Johor, 25 in East Malaysia, 11 in Kedah, 12 in Kelantan, 11 in Penang, 18 in Perak, 17 in Selangor, 1 in Terengganu, 1 in Melaka, 3 in Negeri Sembilan, 5 in Pahang and 0 in Perlis, Pakatan Rakyat can just scrape through with the majority that it needs to form the new federal government -- 124 Parliament seats for Pakatan Rakyat versus 98 seats for Barisan Nasional.
Of course, if Pakatan Rakyat can win 1 seat in Perlis, 2 in Melaka, and 3 in Terengganu, then it will sail in with 128 seats versus Barisan Nasional’s 94.
The earlier question I asked was: but where are these seats going to come from? The next question to ask, I suppose, is: can this be done?
Pakatan Rakyat is confident that it can win at least 122-127 seats, leaving Barisan Nasional with only 95-100 seats. Barisan Nasional, on the other hand, is confident it can win 130-135 seats, leaving Pakatan Rakyat with only 90 or so seats.
Only one can be right. Both cannot be right. Hence the other must be wrong. Which one do you think is right?
 

Monday, January 7, 2013

Sudut Akademik

Teka dimana saya...

Travelog Bumi Ambia Gaza Palestine. Oleh : sheikh Ausaini Beit Hanoun

21 oktober 2012/ Malaysia
Berlepas dr Kota Bharu airport to KLIA pd jam 4.45pm dan sampai KLIA pada jam 8.15 malam kerana hujan lebat dan kapalterbang mendarat di Johor Bharu bukan destinasi sepatutnya. Dari KLIA to Mesir 10.30 malam dan setelah terbang lebih 12 jam, kami sampai di Mesir lebih kurang jam 6 pagi. Pada itu suasana masih gelap lagi dan angin sejuk seakan-akan menyapa kehadiran kami. Suhu di Mesir adalah 20 celcius.

22 Oktober 2012
Kami dijemput oleh pelajar2 Malaysia disana untuk dibawa ke rumah Kelantan, sampai di rumah Kelantan, kami makan pagi sambil berbincang kerana surat kelulusan drp pihak Mesir belum dapat lagi, maka kata sepakat telah diambil ,terus saya bersama Ust Wan dan Sheikh Nazri , Dr Mujahid dan 2 sahabat lain dgn kereta advanza bergerak ke kedutaan Malaysia di Mesir.Kami cuba berbincang utk dpt sokongan atau bantuan utk mempercepatkan surat kelulusan dr  Mesir. Kami dimaklumkan, cakna dan aman menghadapi masalah yg sama dan lebih2 lagi duta besar Malaysia di Mesir berada di Mekah. Dr pagi hingga ptg kami berurusan disana. Lewat ptg balik ke rumah Kelantan di Mesir. Sebelum sempat juga berkunjung ke pejabat ikwan muslimin di sana utk cari network utk bantuan cakna dpt kelulusan berkenaan.

23 Oktober 2012
Usai Makan pagi dan perbincangan telah dibuat utk sampai ke destinasi  kerana  amanah utk hulurkan bantuan drp rakyat Malaysia kpd rakyat palestine, Gaza dan akhirnya diputuskan, saya diberi mandate utk mengetuai delegasi seramai 10 orang drp 14 peserta misi ke Gaza dan tinggal di kaherah adalah sheikh nazri, ust wan, ust fadhli dan sheikh arrifahmi. ( ausaini, kak suri ,abe nor, zailani, dr mujahid, dr azhar, nasir, izham dan 2 wakil zakat penang…lupa lak nama sila semak senarai delegasi. Plan B telah dipilih, maka kami telah bertolak dr rumah Kelantan menuju ke Al Arish iaitu sebuah Bandar perlancungan berhampiran dgn Rafah Mesir iaitu 1 jam perjalanan dgn kereta.Lebih kurang 6-7 pm kami sampai ke al-arish dan bergerak dr al-arish dan sampai ke rafah mesir dan terus masuk ke rafah gaza.

Malam berkenaan kami disambut dgn jamuan makan malam di tepi pantai dan usai makan malam kami dibawa ke hotel penginapan dan adakan perbincangan ringkas, taaruf dan penyerahan sumbangan kepada wakil NGO EMAAR drp Cakna Palestine dan Zakat Penang.
Antara sumbangan yang diserahkan adalah
1.       Pembinaan Masjid.
2.       Qurban utk saweed
3.       Qurban utk al-rahmah
4.       Qurban utk Emaar
5.       Sumbangan utk NGO wanita.
6.       Sumbangan utk rakyat Palestine
.Usai pemberian sumbangan dan bergambar  kami diberi peluang utk berjumpa skuad briged al-qassam di kawasan berhampiran.

23 oktober 2012
Usai makan pagi kami bergerak utk pulang ke al-arish dgn laluan sama dan sampai di hotel al-alrish lebih kurang 10 pagi dan sempat sembang serta berbincang dgn group sheikh nazri dan ust wan, kerna mereka juga bergerak dr kaherah ke al-arish pd pagi berkenaan, dimaklumkan pd jam 2pg kerna aura Gaza yg kuat mengamit mereka, sementara sheikh Ariffahmi dan Ust Fadli bersiap-siaga utk bertolah balik ke Malaysia. Dalam perbincangan itu telah diputuskan group di penang dan kak suri serta abe nor akan balik ke rumah Kelantan , Kaherah sementara itu saya, zailani, ust wan dan sheikh nazri akan tinggal di al-arish utk cuba masuk ke gaza dan sambil2 tunggu surat kelulusan drp pihak mesir.

24 oktober 2012
Jelajah al-arish dan sambil2 ada masa luang utk zailani hantar berita ke Malaysia dan saya lak menulis catatan hujung.inilah masa top gun cakna dpt bersama dan berbincang berkaitan cakna Palestine sambil tungu dan menunggu khabar gembira yang pasti kami yakin doa rakyat Kelantan dan niat yang baik tidak akan menghampakan.Insyallah.

25 oktober 2012
Kejutan pagi hari apabila dimaklumkan surat izin masuk ke gaza diperolehi dr kerajaan Mesir dan kami terpaksa ke Bandar utk print out surat berkenaan dlm email sebab line internet di hotel tidak ada dan terpaksa ke Bandar al-arish utk cari cc, alhamdullilah jumpa dan mereka juga banyak membantu, usai semua maka persiapan utk bergerak ke rafah mesir telah dibuat dan lebih kurang pukul 12 pm bergerak ke Rafah Mesir dan tepat pukul 1pm sampai di sempadan rafah mesir utk masuk ke Rafah Gaza. Hampir 3 jam baru kami dapat jejak bumi berkat Gaza.

26-27 oktober Gaza
Padatnya jadual pergerakan kami di Gaza boleh lihat ikut turutan sptmana gambar dlm pendrive.
Menghadiri  program qurban /pembahagian daging qurban oleh NGO emaar.
Melawat dr ahmad dan sheikh asrah dan sheikh saleem.
Melawat rumah dan keluarga sheikh ahmad yassin
Melawat rumah dan keluatga sheikh alrantisi.
Sumbangan utk masjid Beit Lehya USD3,000.00.
Sumbangan utk  rakyat Palestine di Beit Lehya USD3,000.00.
Sumbangan juga diberikan kepada keluarga miskin, syuhada dan keluarga pelajar yang  dilawati

28 oktober 2012
Usai makan pagi kami dibawa ke pejabat EMAAR kernan di sana berlaku MOU antara cakna dgn Emaar dan Cakna dgn Kementerian Pelajaran Gaza. Cakna juga membuat penyerahan USD6,000.00 utk pembinaan masjid di sekolah bawah kawalselia NGO Emaar.

MOU Cakna dan Emaar
1.       Tajaan Pelajar ( OKU-pekak) seramai 5orang utk 5 tahun setiap orang RM250.00 sebulan.
2.       Pembinaan masjid di sekolah-sekolah Khan Yunis ( 5 buah utk tahun 2013 ).
3.       Tidak termasuk dlm mou tp dicadangkan utk pembinaan pasar di Khan Yunis.

MOU Cakna dgn KPGaza
1.Meneruskan program pendidikan jangkapendek.
2.Program summer camp utk pelajar  Palestine melawat Malaysia/Kelantan seramai 10 orang utk 2 weeks.

Usai urusan MOU dan bergambar dan melawat keluarga Dr Mahmood di rafah maka kami bertolak balik ke Kaherah.

30 Oktober 2012
3pm sampai rumah Kelantan, simpan barang utk balik dan bayaran semua bil2 penginapan dan 7pm bertolak ke cairo airport. Kul 10.40 berlepas pulang.

31 oktober 2013
Larut malam sampai di airport kota bharu dan disambut ikhwan dan family.
               





Sudut Akademik

Program Khidmat Masyarakat
di Rumah Sri Kenangan P.Chepa

Sudut Kesihatan

Makanan Yang Perlu Dikurang Utk Kekal Sihat

1. Daging Merah
2.Kurangkan gula
3.Kurangkan garam
4.Makanan laut
5.Kopi, teh, coklat kecuali teh hijau.
6.Cuka
7.Makanan berminyak
8.Lemak